Is AI Going to Replace Your Job?
Why large language model chat programs are causing such a stir.
Large language models, also known as natural language processing (NLP) models, are a class of advanced artificial intelligence systems that have gained widespread use in various industries. These models have the capability to generate human-like language and are used in many applications such as chatbots, virtual assistants, and predictive text. However, their growing prevalence has raised concerns about the impact on jobs and the economy as a whole. The question of what will be the long-term effects of large language models on our economy and job market is a complex one that warrants thoughtful consideration. Some possible thoughts on the matter include the potential for increased automation and displacement of certain jobs, the emergence of new industries and roles that require expertise in working with large language models, and the need for continued investment in education and training to ensure that the workforce is prepared to adapt to the changes brought about by this technology. As large language models become more advanced and ubiquitous, it is important to approach their impact on the economy and job market with a critical and informed perspective.
It may surprise you, but the entire paragraph above was written by Chat GPT4, a larch language model chat bot created by Open AI, an organization funded by Microsoft and Elon Musk, among other investors. I guess this means I’m out of a job and should permanently shutter this newsletter. Reading articles written by some meat brain is so 2020, man. Kidding aside, I feel little to no threat from Chat GPT and its contemporaries like Google’s Bard. These interactive systems are more than a parlor trick and are quickly coming online and evolving. Savvy technology users are leveraging them for advantage while others are rebuking them as just another hi-tech fad. I maintain a skeptical optimism as I watch from afar, just like when I used to let my brother jump his bike over our homemade ramps first. Little did he know that I wasn’t just being nice.
My experience with them so far has been mixed. On one hand, they help with some of the mundane aspects of brainstorming and sifting through material that does not engage you. Not all of us are like 1984’s Winston who enjoys sifting through countless obscure articles, making monotonous edits along the way. Chat GPT is good at that. What it isn’t good at, however, are genuinely creative tasks. Ask the chat bot to come up with original content without any context whatsoever and you will probably get pushback from the system requesting more guidance. This is not a system exhibiting any notion of creativity, let alone free will. Still, the base technology is good enough to envision a future in which it is capable of even that.
Source: https://openai.com/product/gpt-4
So, the question is: will systems like this replace your job? The first jobs that will come under threat from advanced large language models are those that deal in mundane electronic clerical or editorial work. It is possible that technology could consolidate these roles into fewer hands as they make each human worker more productive. Think how self-checkout lines have reduced the number of grocery clerks. As competency (i.e. accuracy) increases, human trust too will increase. This could lead to disruptions in the professional advice fields such as law, tax and, gasp, financial services. Some argue that we would never fully trust a computer to run our lives so intimately. “Ludicrous!” they say. But then they get into their Tesla that drives them home, tell Alexa to turn on the lights, flip on the TV to have the Netflix algorithm tell them what’s interesting, and then they close out the night by reading the news handpicked by Facebook and reviewing their investments managed by a computer program.
So yes, these systems will disrupt industries. Some positively, others negatively. Just like when Henry Ford’s adoption of the assembly line threatened the stagecoach industry. There are very few stagecoach manufacturers today, but think of all the industry created to support the automobile. I pass by numerous gas stations, tire stores and auto mechanics on my way to the office every morning. And just think of all the industry that stems from these enterprising operations. Our economy is in perpetual motion which dynamic forces, some destructive but most creative.
A more interesting and poignant question that arises from this topic is to ponder the nature of creativity itself. What does it mean to be creative? To be original in thought is to be truly unique. I think of my father-in-law who after 45 years of delivering sermons has yet to recycle content beyond the obvious source material. It is very difficult to be original. This is why I believe we hold talented artists, scientists, and thinkers in such high esteem. The advancement of these “AI” systems could push us to be more unique in our creative endeavors, which could be a catalyst for the next enlightenment of sorts. As I said, I’m skeptically optimistic and gaze in wonder at the construct in development, just as the stagecoach repairman gazed in wonder at the burgeoning industry in 1900s Detroit.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
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